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Oklahoma Real Estate Market: Predictions for 2024

The median home price in Oklahoma was $234,000 in September 2023. Same as the last year.

Yet 25.1% of homes sold for more than the list price in the Sooner State. Given that the number of homes listed on the market increased by 0.5% YoY from 14,666 to 14,741 homes.

There’s only 2 months of supply left! Does the scarcity of houses make Oklahoma a seller’s market? Let’s look at the facts.

Broken Arrow homes sold for a median sale price of $275,000 in September, up 5.77% year-over-year. Homes in Yukon sold for a median sale price of $248,750, a 3.65% increase year-over-year. There were a few markets in Oklahoma where prices declined year-over-year.

Median sale price across Oklahoma real restate

Interest rates are at record highs, with few home buyers. But the inventory is so low that 25.80% of homes sold above the list price!

  • If you are a home buyer: You can avoid bidding wars and avail seller concessions if you buy a home now. The 8.5% interest rate and mortgage payments are significant, but rates are unlikely to drop in the next few months. If they do, you can refi.

  • If you are a home seller: You can lock in Oklahoma’s high home prices. The scarcity of homes in OK makes it a seller’s market. Homes listed on MLS sell faster and for 17.5% more than off-MLS homes. That could be thousands of dollars in additional proceeds if you sell via Houzeo.

The current Oklahoma real estate market statistics reflect the national trend of high demand and low supply. Despite the strong housing demand, home sales tanked. The property prices in Oklahoma have increased regardless.

So, How is the Real Estate Market in Oklahoma?

Sluggish! Home values in Oklahoma rose by 44.89% in the last 5 years.

But, home sales decreased by 16.9% in September 2023 YoY. Maybe due to the mortgage rate climbing to a two-decade high of nearly 8%! And the number of houses for sale in OK was ~14,000 in the month, 0.5% less than in 2022. Oklahoma’s housing market is bearish.

The decrease in home sales can be attributed to not having enough properties in The Sooner State. The months of supply is 2 month, which makes OK a seller’s market. So, if you want to sell a Oklahoma property, now is the right time to list it on MLS.

Oklahoma Real Estate Market Statistics

  • Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Oklahoma is $234,000, no change YoY. In 2024, the median sale price will keep increasing marginally due to OK’s tight inventory.

  • Home Sales: As per September 2023 data, home sales decreased by 16.9% YoY! In September 2023, only 3,918 homes were sold, down from 4,715 in September 2022.

  • Average Rent Prices: Rental costs vary statewide. An average tenant in Broken Arrow pays $1,122, while the one living in Tulsa pays $925.

  • Median Days on Market: The median days on the market for homes for sale was 23 days, up by 3 days YoY.

  • Pending Sales: The number of homes for sale declined by 0.5% YoY compared to 2022. Currently, there are 14,000 homes for sale in Oklahoma.

  • Months of Supply: The average months of supply is 2 month. OK’s demand can’t be satiated with the low supply. OK’s house scarcity is worse than the national housing market.

Oklahoma Housing Market Predictions 2024

Indianians have survived the shockwaves of skyrocketing mortgage rates and rising home prices of 2023. Here’s what we predict for Oklahoma’s housing market:

  1. Home Sellers Will Return to the Market in 2024: Sellers who chose the sidelines in 2023 will come back. Especially those who can’t avoid new jobs or want to move to a cheap place. Whitney, the analyst who predicted the 2008 financial crisis accurately, has forecasted that baby boomers looking to downsize will also add up to 30 million housing units. Yowaza!

  2. Mortgage Interest Rates Will Stabilize by the 2nd Half of 2024: Mortgage rates hit 7.79% in October 2023, the highest level in 23 years. However, the rate dropped to 7.35% in November due to the softening labor market and slowing economy. Even the annual inflation rate went from 3.7% to 3.2%. We think the rates will remain above 6%, but they will stabilize in the second half.

  3. The Number of Home Buyers Will Rise: The historically high interest rates averted buyers in 2023. But mortgage demand rose after the interest rates lowered to 7.35% in November. The easing inflation and stabilizing rates will bring back house hunters.

  4. Home Prices Will Continue to Rise: Home prices rose steadily in the top metros across OK YoY, reaching $234K in September 2023. Experts predict home prices will continue to rise until the low supply-high demand dynamic changes.

  5. New Home Constructions Sales Will Increase: 12.3% of homes purchased in September were new homes, the highest since 2022. Home builders offered $30,000 worth of concessions to attract buyers in 2023. We think builders and sellers will compete for buyers in 2024.

  6. iBuyers Will Continue to Make Lowball Offers: iBuyers offered 104.1% of market value in 2021. They offered 86% in 2022 and around 70% in 2023. Opendoor and Offerpad have lost billions of dollars in 2023. As they struggle to survive, they will make lowball offers.

Bonus Prediction: Buyer Broker Commissions Will Be Negotiable!

In a shocking turn of events, the jury in Missouri awarded more than $5 billion in damages to the Sitzer-Burnett plaintiffs. This motivated nationwide home sellers to file grievances against NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule.

NAR’s Cooperative Compensation Rule or Participation Rule states that listing brokers must offer competitive compensation to buyer agents if they want to list properties on an NAR-affiliated MLS.

Lawsuits like Moehrl, Gibson, Batton, Nosalek, and Batton 2 challenge the Participation Rule. They accuse NAR and other top real estate companies of colluding and conspiring to keep agent commissions high.

If the jury also finds the defendants guilty in these cases, buyer agent compensation may change. Buyer agents may become obsolete by 2025! Phew.

While buyer agents are unlikely to be obsolete in 2024, they may be open to negotiating commissions. That’s probably how they will still have some skin in the game.

When Will the Housing Market Crash in Oklahoma?

A housing market crash in the Sooner State is unlikely.

Oklahoma’s robust economy, diverse job market, and affordable cost of living will continue to attract businesses and individuals seeking new opportunities.

Jenks’s population has increased by 63.2% since 2017, reaching around 15,446 residents in 2023. Newcastle is the second fastest growing city in Oklahoma, with its population surging 51.2% to nearly 7,255.

Oklahoma is a haven for several businesses and industries. Several cities offer a variety of fun activities, such as visiting parks, savoring local cuisine, and exploring arts plus entertainment.

Oklahoma’s job market is also strong. The unemployment rate is at 3.20%. The average cost of living in Oklahoma is $38,650. The median household income is $73,000. Living near the rolling hills and verdant forests of Oklahoma is SO AFFORDABLE. It is unlikely that Oklahoma’s housing market would crash anytime soon.

2024: Is it a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market?

2024 will be a terrific market for sellers. (And buyers, too!)

Home prices in Oklahoma are rising and will continue to rise till the supply-demand dynamic changes. The number of houses for sale in OK was only 21,000 in September 2023. There is very limited inventory to satiate the demand from house hunters. This also makes it the best time to sell a house in Oklahoma.

In fact, after the mortgage rate plummeted from a two-decade-high rate of 8% to 7.35% in November, new listings rose. This shows that those who refused to sell due to mortgage rate lock are finally acclimatizing to 7% rates. Come Spring 2024, more homeowners will follow suit and list properties on Oklahoma MLS.

As home listings in Oklahoma increase, home shoppers hugging the sidelines will also return. In fact, the recent uptick in mortgage applications shows that buyers are returning.

House hunters who could not find affordable homes in 2023 will also start shopping in 2024. The demand for Oklahoma houses will increase – and that’s why sellers may be able to dominate the market.

However, new builds will compete for attention from buyers. Home builders have persuaded buyers to buy new construction homes with mortgage buydowns worth $30K in 2023! Builders will continue offering concessions in 2024, and home sellers may have to wage wars against them.

Listings of new constructions, baby boomers looking to downsize, and desperate home sellers will flood the market in 2024. The properties for sale in Oklahoma will increase. So, whether you are looking for a condo in Tulsa or seeking to live in a co-op in Broken Arrow, you will find your dream home next spring.

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